For something that’s “only” a comic, xkcd is really good at making you think. The worst part of the graph above is that I don’t foresee anything coming in the next 10-20 years to reverse the downward trend. As the Apollo astronauts pass away from old age, there’s a very real chance we’ll end up right back where we were in 1969. At zero. I hope I’m wrong.
I’m back on a normal schedule for the time being since the shuttle launch has slipped to NET (no earlier than) May 8. I love the shuttle and hate to see it go, but the one thing I won’t miss are the launch slips. They are endlessly frustrating and have a sneaky way of taking over your life.
Prior to STS-133: “Of course I can run in the Texas Independence Relay…oh, wait, nevermind, the shuttle slipped a couple months and now it will be up that weekend.”
Last week: “Of course I can go to the baseball game on Thursday…oh, wait, nevermind, I’ll be sleep shifting for the shuttle mission.”
This week: “Of course I can attend this class that I signed up for…oh, wait, I can’t be there because the shuttle slipped.”
The one thing that generally sticks no matter what the shuttle does are plane tickets, and I have plane tickets to London in a few weeks. Looks like I’ll now be working the first half of the mission but someone else will cover the second half as I skip town for a lovely vacation. I’m just glad it all worked out — my group is a little short-staffed right now and I didn’t want to think about what might happen if there was no one available to cover for me.
I think this is an overly pessimistic, US centric point of view. Yes, it is sad that the shuttle is retiring. It is even more sad that we have not made sufficient progress to replace it. BUT there are lots of US companies and other countries who are very likely to continue to be able to do what the shuttle did (soon) and to go to at least the moon in the next decade should they choose.
It just won’t be NASA.
I wasn’t referring only to NASA. I’m well aware there are other companies and countries out there working on going to the moon. But it doesn’t change my opinion that there is almost no chance of humans returning to the moon in the next 10 years. As it stands today:
1) Short of a MAJOR change in policy, there’s zero chance that NASA will be back on the moon within a decade. It’s just not in the plan, period, for the next 10 years.
2) The commercial companies MAY be capable of carrying people to the moon — IF they choose to do it, liked you said. However, even if they are successful in developing that capability (and I think they will be, though perhaps not on the timeline they envision), I’m not convinced there’s a business case to be made for it. If they can’t make money on it, and right now I don’t believe they can, I am doubtful they will find it in their interest to do it.
3) There are 3 other countries/governments at this point who are capable of doing it in the next 10 years: US, Russia, and China. China has said they’re going to do it by 2025 — that’s still 15 years away. The US (i.e. NASA) won’t do it as I’ve already said. Russia’s a wild card, but the ISS and Soyuz/Progress flights to the ISS are their bread and butter for the next 10 years so it’s unlikely they’ll tackle a lunar program.
Like I said, I hope I’m wrong.
Did you read about DARPA?
The 100-year-starship? I’ve heard about it but don’t know many details. It sounds cool for sure. It’s not going to the moon in the next 10-20 years though. 🙂